Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook August 13-19, 2015

Widespread heavy rain observed across West Africa during the past week.
- Poor rainfall distribution since the start of the season has led to death in livestock over parts of northeastern Ethiopia.

1) A premature cessation of rain has increased moisture deficits and negatively impacted crops in the southern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin. A delayed onset and irregular distribution of rainfall have led to abnormal dryness across western and north-central Nigeria.

2) A delayed onset and general lack of rainfall has resulted in abnormal dryness across parts of central and eastern Sudan, northern Ethiopia, and southern Eritrea. Some increase in rainfall is expected along the Sudan-Eritrea-Ethiopia borders during the next week, which should help reduce deficits.

3) Despite some increase in rainfall over the past two weeks, the much delayed start to the rainfall season has resulted in drought, which has severely impacted ground conditions and already led to death in livestock across parts of north-central and eastern Ethiopia.

4) Copious amounts of rain have caused flooding, resulting in fatalities over the Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso provinces of Burkina Faso, inundation over Gao, Segou, Mopti, and Timbuktu of Mali, and the Yobe state of northern Nigeria. The forecast widespread, heavy rain during the next week maintains elevated risks for flooding over many areas of the region.

5) Heavy downpours have resulted in flooding over the North Darfur of Sudan. Abundant rain is forecast to continue over eastern Chad and western Sudan during the next week, heightening risks for flooding and potential waterborne disease outbreaks.