Ethiopia to become Africa’s major economic power by 2050-UN

The top spot for Africa’s biggest economy by 2050 will go to Ethiopia, according to Dr. Carlos Lopes, Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).In a statement issued by the UNECA on Thursday in Addis Ababa, Dr. Carlos weighed prospects and challenges for Nigeria, South Africa-current economic giants in Africa, with resource rich DR Congo and fast growing Ethiopia to reach to the conclusion that Ethiopia will come out as top performer in Africa by 2050.

Mail and Guardian Africa’s Editor Charles Onyango-Obbo “satâ€� digitally with Lopes to send out feelers about Africa’s future – where the continent is likely to go in the next 85 years.

The Executive Secretary said: “At nearly 100 million, the country [Ethiopia] is Africa’s third most populous, and has posted blistering economic growth in the past decade or so.â€�

Dr. Carlos added “More importantly, it is fast closing the infrastructure gap, laying down a flurry of roads, railways and power projects, which would give it a competitive advantage in the region, particularly over DR Congo that is notoriously poorly connected,�.

Speaking of Nigeria, Africa’s current economic giant, Lopes said: “even with its rosy headline economic figures, huge population and massive potential, also mask deep structural flaws in the economy that might make it choke on growth soon.â€�

“Nigeria will have strong competition and by 2050 may have an economy smaller than DR Congo and Ethiopia,â€� said Lopes. Nigeria’s weak point, he said, is in its lack of power.

Nigeria produces just 1.5 percent of the electricity it needs for its 173 million people. Over 70 percent of running costs go to running fuel generators alone, and industries retain slow, outdated manual processes because they don’t have the power to run machines.

Without radical reform, and if oil revenues have hit a permanent slump, Nigeria will not be able to function as a modern economy, and may just become a de facto village, though still hulking in size, he warned.

Meanwhile, DR Congo’s potential is immense, he said. The DR Congo’s total mineral wealth is estimated to be worth a mind-boggling $24 trillion, more than the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Europe and the US combined.

The planned $80 billion Grand Inga Dam, if finally constructed will be massive: Producing 40,000 megawatts when complete. It will be capable of literally lighting up the continent, providing electricity to half of African countries, according to Dr. Lopes.

Currently, the world’s largest hydropower plant is the Three Gorges Dam across the Yangtze River in China, delivering 22,500 Megawatts — Grand Inga will be nearly double the size.

But DR Congo is plagued by instability, so may not take its place at the top of Africa’s economic pile any time soon.

Making things worse, DR Congo has less than 3,000 km of all-weather paved road and only half of that paltry amount of all-weather road is in good condition.

“South Africa will not get back on top,� said Lopes categorically during the extensive interview with Mail and Guardian Africa.

Dr. Lopes listed the global commodity price collapse, the worst drought occurred in more than three decades, social unrest and the country’s sovereign credit risk as key contributing factors which hold back South Africa from regaining its spot as Africa’s economic power.

Over the next 35 years, more than half of the world’s births will happen in Africa. It means that over the same time period, the region’s working age population is expected to triple to 1.25 billion people, he further noted.

Source: http://en.starafrica.com/