Govt has no clear policy to exit crisis – Lawyer

An Ethiopian lawyer and lecturer with the Keele University in the United Kingdom says the re-arrest of journalists and politicians back home is a sign that the government was clueless about how to exit the current political crisis.

Awol Allo in an interview with Radio France International (RFI) held that the development which took place over the weekend was, however, not a surprise to most watchers of Ethiopian politics over the past few years.

He said for the government to order the fresh detention of these people was a sign that it lacked the ideas to steer the country away from the current crisis. Ethiopia is without a substantive Prime Minister and is currently under a six-month state of emergency imposed on February 16.

“… the fact that this is happening at a time that we have a state of emergency and these are highly popular individuals, very high profile politicians re-arrested again says very clearly (I think) to everyone that is watching that the government has no clear vision, clear policy to get out of the current crisis,” he said.

And they are taking such a long long time to appoint a new Prime Minister shows very clearly that the former Prime Minister wasn't really in control at the time and that there were other people who call the shots behind the scene.

About a dozen politicians and journalists were arrested during a gathering in the town of Bahir Dar in the Amhara regional state. A lawyer associated with some of them said they were held for displaying a banned national flag and meeting without permit contrary to state of emergency rules.

According to Allo, the conflicting and contradictory signals sent by the regime all but lacked logic given the basis for the release of the re-arrested group and the incidents that followed their release.

Commenting on the lack of a Prime Minsiter, he said it was indicative of the fact that outgoing Hailemariam Desalegn was not in control over the last five years. “The fact that the ruling establishment didn’t care much about the resignation of the Prime Minister, he added.

“And they are taking such a long long time to appoint a new Prime Minister shows very clearly that the former Prime Minister wasn’t really in control at the time and that there were other people who call the shots behind the scene.” Read more here 

Ethiopia says 62 citizens released from detention in Kenya

ADDIS ABABA, March 23 (Xinhua) -- The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs disclosed Friday that some 62 Ethiopians were freed from imprisonment in neighboring Kenya.

Spokesperson of the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Meles Alem, said that the reported 62 Ethiopians, who were jailed in Kenya's Kikuyu Police station, were freed following negotiations between the Kenyan police and the Ethiopian embassy in Kenya.

The ministry, however, did not disclose the reasons for the arrest of Ethiopians in Kenya as well as whether the released individuals would be repatriated home soon.

Some Ethiopians have used Kenya, lying on the southern border of Ethiopia, as an immediate transit route to their ultimate destination in South Africa in search of better job opportunities.

Ethiopia's foreign ministry recently announced that some 54 individuals had been repatriated from Mozambique following discussions between the Ethiopian embassy in South Africa and the government of Mozambique.

The ministry had also previously repatriated close to 150 Ethiopians in another southern African country Zambia.

Despite a growing economy and public awareness campaigns on the dangers of human trafficking by the Ethiopian government, it is estimated that thousands of Ethiopians are trafficked to South Africa annually where they are mainly engaged in the informal economy.

Human traffickers reportedly use various countries as transit points to smuggle Ethiopians to South Africa, which is home to tens of thousands of both legal and undocumented Ethiopians.

According to the Ethiopian foreign ministry, human traffickers charge an average of 3,500 to 4,000 U.S. dollars to smuggle a single individual from Ethiopia to South Africa.

Read more here 

'Fight for democracy in Ethiopia continues' - U.S. Congress to vote on H. Res. 128

The United States Congress will finally vote on a human rights resolution against the Ethiopian government in the second week of April, a Congressman deeply involved in the process has announced.

According to Rep. Mike Coffman who represents Colorado’s Sixth Congressional District, the vote is a sign that “The fight for respect of human rights & inclusive governance in Ethiopia continues.”

In a tweet of March 21, 2018; he said the bi-partisan House Resolution 128 was scheduled to be voted upon in the week of April 9 after months of work by all involved.

In October 2017, a pro-democracy group, Freedom House, accused Ethiopia of literallyblackmailing the U.S. Congress with a threat to withhold counter-terrorism cooperation if the vote went ahead.

Freedom House quoted Republican Congressman Mike Coffman as confirming that Ethiopia’s position was relayed by its ambassador in Washington who said the country will “stop counter-terrorism cooperation with the United States if Congress went ahead with a planned vote on a resolution calling for human rights protections and inclusive governance in the country (H. Res. 128).”

But the turn of events, with the vote scheduled to go ahead means that the Congress had ‘thrown out’ the threat from Addis Ababa.

Freedom House’s statement dated October 16, 2017 was titled “U.S. Congress Should Call Ethiopia’s Bluff,” with its Senior Program Officer for Africa, Joseph Badwaza, egging Congress to proceed with its efforts and discard the Ethiopian government’s “bullying tactics.”

“Passing H. Res. 128 would send a powerful message to Addis Ababa to get serious about undertaking reforms, and the Ethiopian government’s bullying tactics should not derail it. Members of Congress should call the bluff, place the resolution back on the House agenda, and approve it.

“Experience shows that Ethiopia would never follow through on the threat to halt security cooperation. The government fully understands who would be the ultimate loser if it did,” Freedom House said.

What is the H. Res. 128 about?

H. Res. 128 is a human rights centered move with strong bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress, it has as many as 71 cosponsors.

The resolution passed the House Foreign Affairs Committee unanimously in late July 2017 and was scheduled for a vote by the full House on October 2.

One of its authors, Republican Congressman Chris Smith said during the committee mark-up, the resolution is like a mirror held up to the government of Ethiopia, and it is intended to encourage them to recognize how others see them and move forward with reforms.

“While the resolution contains provisions that call for sanctions — under the Global Magnitsky Act— against Ethiopian officials responsible for committing gross human rights violations, the more important reason why the government took the severe step of threatening the U.S. Congress is the damage that this resolution could do to the country’s image,” Freedom House averred. Read more here 

Nearly 8 Million Ethiopians Need Emergency Food, Water

GENEVA — 

Ethiopia is appealing for $1.6 billion to provide emergency and long-term aid for 7.88 million people affected by drought, floods and conflict. U.N. officials presented their humanitarian and disaster resilience plan.

Ethiopia is emerging from three consecutive years of drought in a perilous state. Among those hardest-hit are some 2.4 million pastoralists who have lost 80 percent of their livestock.

U.N. resident and humanitarian coordinator in Ethiopia Ahunna Eziakonwa-Onochie tells VOA herders depend upon the meat and milk from their animals to feed their families.

“So, we are estimating this year that we will see about 3.5 million children who suffer from moderate acute malnutrition and just over 300,000 who have to face severe acute malnutrition," said Eziakonwa-Onochie.

Eziakonwa-Onochie warns children who are severely acutely malnourished are at risk of dying if they do not urgently receive special nutritional feeding.

“Time is of the essence. Unless we are able to catch them early, we end up having more kids crossing into that red zone of severe acute malnutrition," said Eziakonwa-Onochie. "That is what we are absolutely determined to avoid this year. And, that is why we are asking for these resources now because it is totally preventable.”

Other vulnerable people include 1.7 million the United Nations says are displaced by drought and those displaced by conflict in the border areas of the Oromia and Somali regions. They will need to be relocated to areas where there is water so they can restock their animals or pursue other livelihood opportunities.

In parallel with the emergency needs, Eziakonwa-Onochie says the Ethiopian plan aims to build resilience so the nation can better deal with disasters before they strike. For example, she says the government and humanitarian partners are considering digging bore holes in the lowlands. This would make water available for people and their animals when rain is scarce and drought appears on the horizon. Read more here

Tensions rise as Ethiopia struggles to pick a new leader

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — When Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn unexpectedly resigned from his position last month, tens of thousands of people flooded the streets of the capital singing, dancing, honking car horns and waving flags to celebrate the end of his autocratic era.

But hopes that a time of economic crisis and political repression was easing may be premature, even as Ethiopia’s neighbors on the tense Horn of Africa wait for what comes next in Addis Ababa.

“We are free,” said Salem Gebre, 30, a street hawker who has led protests in the capital, recalling his jubilation at the time. “He has killed and oppressed many of us. We don’t want him anymore, and we are glad he’s gone.”

More than 1,000 people have died in protests in Ethiopia in the past three years, according to Human Rights Watch and other groups. Disputes over land that arose from urban development around Addis Ababa sparked the first demonstrations. Later, protesters added grievances over political restrictions and other human rights abuses to their list of demands.

As fears mounted that an armed clash or a crackdown was imminent, the government instead began releasing hundreds of political detainees in early February. When those moves failed to quiet the protests, the prime minister unexpectedly said he would step aside.Read more here

Ethiopia to get first Muslim Prime Minister – pro-govt blogger hints

Ethiopia will have a Muslim Prime Minister by close of this week according to a pro-government blogger, Daniel Berhane.

The 180-member Council of the ruling Ethiopia Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is currently meeting to review its activities and to elect a new Prime Minister.

Berhane said in a tweet, “By the end of the week, Ethiopia will have her first Muslim Prime Minister and a deputy from SNNPR. That is to say, Demeke Mekonen and Shiferaw Shigute.”

Per his prediction, the current deputy Prime Minister, Demeke Mekonen of the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) will fill the vacuum left by Hailemariam Desalegn, who resigned his post on February 15 in a move to allow for promised reforms to take place.

Ethiopia’s new deputy Prime Minister Mekonnen Demeke (L) takes the oath of office during the swearing-in ceremony in Addis Ababa September 21, 2012.

It also means that the current leader of Desalegn’s party – the Southern Ethiopian Peoples Democratic Movement (SEPDM) , Shiferaw Shigute, will replace Mekonen as deputy PM. Shigute is currently working with the EPRDF secretariat and previously served as Education minister.

Whoever of the seven candidates being mentioned gets the slot will have to deal with political discontent that has led to protests in the two largest regions – Amhara and Oromia. He will also have to follow through with promised reforms at the heart of which is opening up the democratic space.

It effectively means that the Oromo bloc in the coalition will yet again miss out on a position they had made strategic changes to secure for the first time. The Oromo Peoples Democratic Front (OPDO) tweaked its leadership last month replacing the regional president.

The party replaced Lemma Megerssa with Dr Abiy Ahmed – a strategic move according to political watchers as it eyed the PM vacancy.

Aside the OPDO, ANDM and SEPDM, the other party in the coalition is the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), accused severally of holding on to top positions in government.

The last two Premiers have come from the TPLF and SEPDM. The late Meles Zenawi was in charge from 1995 till his death in August 2012. Desalegn (as head of SEPDM) took over in September 2012 till his resignation in February 2018.Read more here 

Ethiopia’s uncertain political future

Ethiopia's ruling party, EPRDF, has convened a meeting to choose the country's next prime minister. But debate is also focused on how to deal with the worsening political crisis.

For over three years, a wave of political unrest in Ethiopia, particularly in the Oromia regional state, has plunged the country into a deep political crisis. The ruling coalition party, Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), admitted that the crisis was due to its own failings and pledged widespread reform.

On February 15, 2018, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Hailemariam Dessalegn resigned, saying that his departure from office was one part of the reform package. Hailemariam said he hoped his party would "make history again by conducting a peaceful power transition" in the country.

To fill this vacant position, potential candidates have been identified from across four member parties of the EPRDF: Abiy Ahmed, PhD, Chairman of the OPDO (Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization); Demeke Mekonnen, Chairman of ANDM (Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM); Shiferaw Shigute, Chairman of SEPDM (Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement) and Debretsion Gebremichael, PhD, Chairman of TPLF (Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front). The dominant party in the ruling coalition, TPLF, whose leader also ruled the country for over two decades and still controls the country's intelligence and military, is reportedly behind the wheel on the decision as to who should be elected to the top position.

According to local reports, the 180 members of EPRDF Council, a decision-making body that allocates 45 seats to each party to vote for a new prime minister, met yesterday. So far, no date has been set for the meeting to be concluded, which would be when the prime minister would be elected.

Dr Abiy Ahmed

Due to the scale of the political crisis in the Oromia state, and owing to the emergence of OPDO's "charismatic" new leaders, many observers are saying that Abiy Ahmed could be elected. A report from the African Confidential, a London-based newsletter, speculates that TPLF may vote either for the "loyalist" Shiferaw Shigute or Demeke Mekonnen. However, it stated that "if the OPDO does not take the reins of federal government there is a strong chance that Oromia will explode again."

The alleged party in-fighting on who should be the next leader, or even whether to undertake genuine reform, chiefly in military and intelligence structure, has been shrouded in secrecy. Pundits have been questioning whether a newly-elected prime minister could disentangle the country from its current political crisis.

Gidey Degefu, senior lecturer of political science and philosophy at Addis Ababa's Kotebe Metropolitan University, believes the best outcome would be for the EPRDF to elect a leader who could translate the constitution, human and democratic rights into practice. The "transition is not going to be easy," said Gidey told DW. "The relations between the new leadership and the public [are] decisive. Otherwise, it is going to face huge, huge challenges," he said.

Legal and policy expert Birhanemeskel Abebe Segni, PhD, shares a similar view. He believes that if the EPRDF appoints people with a progressive agenda, such as Abiy Ahmed, there is a good chance that the peaceful transition will be successful. Otherwise, he warned, there could be serious consequences. Birhanemeskel told DW that "whether the EPRDF appoints a new progressive or regressive prime minister, someone who looks backward instead of forward, who makes the future into the past, the Ethiopian people will continue their struggle to establish a government of the people, by the people and for the people."

Worsening crisis

A day after Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned, the government announced an extension to the country's state of emergency in order to control the political crisis. But this appears to have had the opposite effect, according to residents and political commentators.

Bekele Gerba, a prominent politician, also holds this view. He was recently released from prison as a part of the reforms, and holds the position as first secretary general of the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC). He believes that the Ethiopian military's latest attack on civilians in Moyale, Oromia, is proof that the state of emergency has caused the crisis to escalate. 

Ethiopian politician, Bekele Gerba

"There is nothing more painful than hearing and seeing a government military, which should protect the people and sovereignty of the country, attacking and displacing its own citizens," Bekele said.

In a report on Monday, the United Nation High Commission for Refuges (UNHCR) quoted a displaced person named [Belayinesh] Tadese: "One of my neighbors was shot and killed during the day as he came from a school meeting in our village. The following day, another neighbor was strangled as he went to the shops in the evening. I was really scared, so I decided to cross the border to Kenya for safety."

Noellah Musundi, PR and Communication manager with Kenya’s Red Cross Society, told DW that the number of people seeking refuge in Moyale has now reached over 10,500. "This number is expected to escalate, because more people are still coming in," he said.

On Saturday, the Federal Police Commissioner, General Assefa Abyou, told local reporters that his government is working on repatriating those who have fled to Kenya. Bekele, meanwhile, has called on the government to bring the perpetrators to justice and to immediately reassess the state of emergency.

Blame placed on Eritrea, OLF

During his press briefing, Commissioner General Assefa Abyou accused the Eritrean government of "training, equipping and sending anti-peace forces" to destabilize the country. In a rebuke, Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel, said the allegation was false and did not deserve a serious response. In an interview with Bloomberg, he was quoted as saying: "The regime is desperately trying to deflect attention from its intractable domestic crisis — of its own making — and find external scapegoats."

The Commissioner General also leveled a similar accusation against the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) for the recent situation in Moyale. He said that "the displaced people flee from the fear that the terrorist force, OLF, has opened a massive campaign and chaos to take an action in the area."

Shigut Geleta (PhD), head of the OLF's external affairs, down played the allegations saying that OLF's forces were not present at the place mentioned by the Commissioner General. 

OLF, which was an outlawed organization, has been fighting the Ethiopian government for more than two decades. Read more here 

GOVERNMENT TO PUBLISH BLUEPRINT FOR WAR ON RACISM

Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked said the government would act with “zero tolerance” for any manifestation of institutionalized racism.

She made these comments ahead of the release of an inaugural report by the Government Unit for Coordinating the Struggle Against Racism, to be presented to President Reuven Rivlin on Wednesday.

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“Two and a half years ago racism and discrimination against the members of the Ethiopian community erupted into the public consciousness,” Shaked said.

“The State of Israel by nature is a state that absorbs aliya – a multicultural state. There is no justification for manifestations of racism just because someone was born to another community,” she added.

The unit was established and tasked with overseeing the implementation of the recommendations of the Palmor Committee regarding combating racism in Israeli society.

In 2016 attorney Ami Palmor, director-general of the Justice Ministry, presented Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a report, which for the first time acknowledged the racism and discrimination faced by Ethiopians on a daily basis because of their skin color.
The report was compiled by an inter-ministerial task force which was established by a special ministerial committee headed by the prime minister following widespread protests by Ethiopians in May 2015. It provided 52 recommendations on how to eradicate racism.

“Racism is not a decree of fate – it is the result of social constructs, historical and cultural processes created by people – and therefore people can change them,” according to attorney Awaka (Koby) Zana, head of the unit.

“Together, civil service, civil-society organizations and the general public will work to eradicate racism and create a just and equitable society that enables everyone to live in personal security and to realize their potential,” he said.

As such, the unit’s first report concluded that the government will be able to almost entirely implement the Palmor Committee’s recommendations within a year-and-a-half time frame.

Of the 52 recommendations, the report found that 31 were fully completed, 17 are in the process of being completed and only four have yet to be implemented.

Among the main recommendations that have been implemented are the establishment of a unit within the Justice Ministry to coordinate the fight against racism, as well as the appointment of an “officer against discrimination and racism” for every government office.

The government also created a framework to provide free legal representation in claims involving racial discrimination.

With regards to the police, the report noted that they have already implemented officer training to prevent racism, as well as the transferring of complaints of racist behavior to the Disciplinary Department.



Additionally, the report found that the Health Ministry had implemented the recommendation to cancel restrictions on blood donations of Ethiopian Israelis.

With regards to education, the report found that the Education Ministry had integrated and trained Ethiopian-Israeli educators as school principals, though it had only partly implemented adding the history and heritage of Ethiopia into the school curricula.

Furthermore, the report found that two of the recommendations – training teachers to deal with prejudice and prevention of racism, and providing incentives to schools to encourage creativity and content against racism – had yet to be implemented.

The report also highlighted complaints of racism and discrimination this past year that the unit received – from discrimination against Ethiopian pupils by a Dan bus driver and racial comments made by a senior administrator in a school, to misconduct, racial slurs, and violence made by police officers.

“The question of the existence of institutionalized racism that has been recognized in the context of Ethiopian immigrants is more relevant than ever,” Palmor said.

“I believe we have the tools to act to reduce it, and the unit to coordinate the struggle against racism acts in various ways to deal with complaints and influence policy. The greater the public trust and complaints, the better the unit will be able to focus its activities,” he added. Read more here

Ethiopia security crisis self-inflicted, Eritrea innocent – Ex-US Diplomat

Ethiopia must deal with its home generated security crisis and stop using Eritrea as a smokescreen, this is the view of a former United States Assistant Secretary of State.

Herman Cohen on Monday waded into renewed claims by Ethiopia that neighbouring Eritrea was backing groups aimed at destabilizing the country.

Cohen described the Ethiopian claims as false and averred that the current security crisis in the country was “self-inflicted by a minority kleptocratic regime,” in apparent reference to the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF).

Ethiopia is currently under a state of emergency imposed on February 16 this year, a day after Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned his position to allow for political reforms.

The ruling coalition, the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is set to meet to elect his successor. The country is currently under a Command Post administering the state of emergency.

The latest accusation against Eritrea was by the federal police chief who whiles giving a briefing on the state of emergency late last week, reportedly cited Eritrean involvement in the crisis. The Eritrean Information minister dismissed the claims in an email exchange with Bloomberg.

“The regime is desperately trying to deflect attention from its intractable domestic crisis — of its own making — and find external scapegoats,” Yemane Ghebre Meskel said describing the claims as false and one that did not merit a serious response.

The ex-ambassador has been a regular commentator on African politics and has previously spoken about the Ethiopian situation.

“In Ethiopia, instead of an all-parties reconciliation conference, I fear a Middle East type military dictatorship takeover and a zero sum game bloody outcome. USG, do not let it happen,” he said hours after a state of emergency was imposed on February 16.

“While in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Secretary Tillerson should have talks with Ethiopian government about their internal political crisis, and should encourage the regime in power not to fear an opening to transparent democracy,” he tweeted on March 3, 2018.

“Ethiopia regime should withdraw SOE declaration prior to naming OPDO leader Abiy Ahmed as new Prime Minister, thereby avoiding tense vote in Parliament, and setting stage for political reforms,” he tweeted two days earlier. Read more here

Al-Bashir, al-Sisi say resolved to improve Sudan-Egypt relations

March 19, 2018 (KHARTOUM) — Egypt and Sudan leaders Monday pledged to work together to strengthen bilateral relations and to forge a tripartite partnership with Ethiopia over the Nile water, announcing the end of troubled days.

Omer Al-Bashir on Monday spent the whole day with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo giving the impression as he was there to support a friendly president in a campaign for his re-election within a week.

In fact, the two leaders who are just in a truce after suspending media attacks held discussions on security cooperation to end regional tensions as Egypt was accused of involving itself in the troubled-Libya and backing Darfur rebels or coordinating with Eritrea to create trouble in eastern Sudan and attack a controversial dam project in Ethiopia.

At the end of the one-day visit, the two leaders told reporters they discussed ways to promote common interests and develop joint projects, turning their back on suspicions and propaganda.

President al-Sisi recalled the historical and ancestral relations between the two countries and "the sacred bond" that links them adding that the "security of Sudan means the security of Egypt and that the security of Egypt means the security of Sudan".

He further said he discussed with al-Bashir ways to address mutual challenges adding they agreed to strengthen cooperation in energy, electricity, transport and infrastructure, as well as river Nile.

The president-candidate also said he discussed with the visiting leader the outstanding issues on the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam adding they agreed to continue the tripartite discussions to reach a solution preserving the interests of the three countries.

"We will work together and the brothers in Ethiopia to reach a partnership over the river Nile, and this will have common benefit for all parties without harming any side," he said.

Al-Bashir, al-Sisi, and the former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn agreed last January to coordinate and work together for the common interest of the peoples of their countries.

The irrigation ministers had to meet in February to settle the divergences of technical reports and to build up a joint esprit of trust and mutual interests. But the resignation of the Ethiopian prime minister has forced Addis Ababa to demand to postpone the meeting

.

In his remakes, al-Bashir, like al-Sisi, didn’t elaborate much on the matters they discussed or the progress they made.

But, he stressed the strong political will of the two countries to overcome the issues of Nile water and Halayeb border area.

The Sudanese president added that the direct talks with his Egyptian counterpart were positive, and increased mutual understanding, paving the way to more cooperation between the two countries in all fields.

"We are witnessing the problems that the region is facing. Thanks to God, we are immune from these problems," but "This requires coordination and consultation between the two countries through the established mechanisms in all areas," he added.

The Sudanese leader was alluding to the situation in Libya and other regional troubles in the Middle East.

Al-Bashir’s delegation included his foreign minister Ibrahim Gnadour, the head of intelligence and security apparatus Salah Gosh who briefed the joint presidential meeting, together with their Egyptian counterparts about the progress done in the different fields, according to Ghandour. Read more here

Sisi: Egypt working with Sudan, Ethiopia regarding the Nile

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi told a joint press conference in Cairo, on Monday, with his Sudanese counterpart Omar al-Bashir, that Egypt intends to work with Sudan as well as with Ethiopia for the sake of the collective benefit of the Nile River.

Al-Sisi announced the efforts to enhance cooperation between Egypt and Sudan in various fields and activate the joint efforts between the two countries as represented in a number of bodies and committees.

Bashir stressed Sudan’s will to settle any differences between Cairo and Khartoum.

He said that Sudan is keen on the security of Egypt, referring to the historical relations between the two countries and people.

"We reiterate the eternal brotherly relations and common links that unite the two peoples of the Nile valley," Sisi said in a televised news conference following a meeting with Bashir.

In turn, Bashir said as "Egypt is now going through an election period", his delegation "timed our visit now to reiterate our support for Egypt's stability and to support President Sisi."

The Sudanese president arrived in Egypt earlier on Monday to discuss the means to strengthen relations and issues of common concern. Al-Bashir was received at Cairo airport by the Egyptian President al-Sisi.

"The Sudanese president is paying a visit to Egypt within the framework of continuing consultations between the two presidents and discussing ways to strengthen bilateral relations in all fields," Egyptian Presidential Spokesman Bassam Radhi said Sunday.

A handout picture released by the Egyptian presidency on March 19, 2018 shows Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (R) during his meeting with his Sudanese counterpart Omar al-Bashir at the presidential palace in Cairo. (AFP)

This comes a few days after the visit of Major General Abbas Kamil, the acting Egyptian intelligence chief to Sudan, and his meeting with Sudanese Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour and Sudanese officials to discuss all outstanding issues and resolve any differences as well as pave the way to return the relations between the two countries to the right track.

The two leaders met recently on the sidelines of the African summit in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, and asserted Egyptian-Sudanese relations and the historical ties between the two countries.

The meeting was followed by a joint statement on efforts to achieve and promote common interests, take into account the concerns of both countries, respect internal affairs and maintain their national security.

The two presidents mentioned future cooperative steps over Nile water discussions, without providing much detail.

"We agreed to start preparing to hold the joint committee (meeting), to be chaired by the two countries' presidents, during this year in Khartoum," Sisi said.

Bashir responded that the two countries "don't have any choice but to cooperate, because truthfully this is the interest and confirmed demand of our peoples."

During the meeting, it was agreed on the importance of working towards looking for broader horizons for the cooperation between the two countries in various fields, exploring opportunities and activating the various joint committees including the consular committee, the trade committee, the border crossings committee, political consultation mechanism at the level of foreign ministers, and any other joint committees the two parties agree upon while overcoming any difficulties or challenges before those committees. Read more here

An Unstable Ethiopia: Wobbles in Addis Ababa

The resignation last month of Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn has shaken the assumption that the East African state is a ‘bastion of stability’ in an unstable region.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn’s departure after five years in power to pave way for political reform was abrupt, but not unexpected. The move followed a ‘do or die’ executive committee meeting of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) in December.

For years, a triad of ethnic federalism, revolutionary democracy and state-led development has underpinned the regime’s claims of legitimate, effective governance. However, this edifice appears to be cracking.

The government is struggling with youth unemployment, high public debt, inflation and a shortage of foreign currency. Export volumes are flagging, and despite significant federal government investment, the productivity of domestic manufacturing industries cannot keep up with more efficient global producers.

By framing itself as the indispensable engine of economic development, the EPRDF has been hobbled by an inability to translate double-digit national economic growth rates into higher living standards. For all its hailed dividends, the top-down disposition of Ethiopia’s development with its long horizon-rent centralisation, often at the expense of civil liberties, has been divisive.

The resulting anger has expressed itself in increasingly ethno-centric terms since 2015, with local rallies against the physical urban expansion of Addis Ababa morphing into nation-wide anti-government demonstrations.

By framing itself as the indispensable engine of economic development, the ruling party has been hobbled by an inability to translate double-digit national economic growth rates into higher living standards

Ethnic-Oromos and Amharas, collectively representing more than two-thirds of the population, are in the forefront of these protests, decrying their marginalisation and demanding more commensurate political roles.

While these protests don’t advance a single set of grievances, they all touch on a perennial question in Ethiopian politics: ‘how to build a modern nation-state?’

The political orthodoxy peddled by the EPRDF has always relied on state-led development and ethnic federalism, with the party’s founder, Meles Zenawi, gambling that Ethiopia’s material transformation would ‘cause parochial attachments to wither under a new nation-state identity’.

Nevertheless, it seems ethno-regional loyalties have lost little of their mobilising appeal, largely because the federal model is widely considered a proxy for minority rule.

As a national coalition, the EPRDF controls Ethiopia’s regions through satellite parties, including the Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization (OPDO) and the Amhara National Democratic Movement.

However, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has long been dominant, co-opting its ‘partners’ as vehicles for making Tigrayan hegemony more palatable. Representing only 6% of the population, ethnic-Tigrayans under both Zenawi and Desalegn have disproportionately benefited, seizing positions in government, the security services, and EPRDF-sponsored endowment companies.

So, rather than defusing inter-regional tensions, Ethiopia’s federal configurations have institutionalised a frozen conflict.

Galvanised by mass protests, the TPLF’s nominal ‘partners’ are flexing their own muscles. Under the leadership of Lemma Megersa, the OPDO has rebranded itself as a quasi-opposition party, advocating Oromo nationalism and localised forms of identity as an ideological panacea to the EPRDF’s unpopularity.

Even nostalgic references to the pan-Ethiopian nationalism of the Derg military regime, which took over the country after the overthrow of Emperor Haile Selassie in 1974, are circulating as an alternative to the status quo.

Desalegn’s resignation last month has triggered a succession struggle and created space for debate. This should be welcomed; doctrinal rigidity has hampered the EPRDF for years and new leadership may introduce needed reforms.

But, the process also carries risk. The imposition of another state of emergency creates latitude for a violent pushback by TPLF hardliners. Centralised rent allocations under its developmentalism ideology also leave Ethiopia vulnerable to the same temptations of patronage, cronyism and corruption as suffered by its neighbours.

Desalegn’s resignation last month has triggered a succession struggle and created space for debate. This should be welcomed

Similarly, belligerent expressions of regional identity may tip into ethnic chauvinism or open conflict. Ethnicity has already been securitised through lethal crackdowns on protesters, but emerging reports describe attacks on Tigrayan civilians, and violence in the Somali Region between Oromos, Somalis and ‘Liyu’ (Amharic for ‘Special’) paramilitaries. Political rabble-rousing will only accentuate tensions, particularly if expectations of change are frustrated.

Crucially, the resulting lack of clear leadership coincides with pressing regional challenges. Analysts also fear the ENDF is becoming politicised, with ethnic tensions stoking infightingbetween Oromo soldiers and Tigrayan officers. Tigrayan hardliners in the EPRDF have already deployed the ENDF in domestic policing roles, and these measures are likely to persist under a renewed state of emergency.

Given the limited capacity of the SNA and a destructive competition for regional influence from the Gulf, any withdrawal of Ethiopian troops risks severe strategic setbacks. There is a reason why the US and European governments often overlook the EPRDF’s authoritarian leanings: the political expediency which comes with harnessing Ethiopia as a critical partner in the ‘War on Terror’.

However, if the Ethiopians can no longer satisfy their part of the bargain, this international leniency may start diminishing.

The $4.8 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is another strategic concern, with work on the biggest hydroelectric project in Africa set to finish in late 2018. But its position at the head of the Blue Nile is liable to restrict downstream flows to Egypt, a ‘fatal’ threat for an agriculturally dependent economy already experiencing water shortages.

The prospect of absolute water scarcity is considered a ‘matter of life and death’, and, in the absence of a diplomatic settlement, Cairo’s contingency plans for a military action against Ethiopia’s project must be taken seriously.

And time is running out. Negotiations stalled last November after Ethiopia refused to recognise Egypt’s right self-declared right to 55.5 billion metres3 of Nile water annually.

However, forthcoming Egyptian presidential elections leave incumbent Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi little leeway for further comprises. And, if this were not enough, disputes over the Hala’ib Triangle between Sudan, Egypt and Eritrea raise additional complications.

Desalegn’s resignation jeopardises the handling of all these issues, for it raises the stakes for all concerned, and restricts Ethiopia’s own room for compromise.

The political crisis may give Ethiopians an opportunity to tackle their deep-rooted structural problems. But it could also result in the unravelling of the region’s bigger problems.

Banner image: Addis Ababa is likely to be less of a stabilising imfluence in East Africa. Courtesy of Sam Effron/Wikimedia

The views expressed in this Commentary are the author's, and do not necessarily reflect those of RUSI or any other institution. Read more here