Why the state of emergency in Ethiopia could destabilise the Horn of Africa

Former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn sent shock waves through the region when he abruptly tendered his resignation.

Desalegn said that he had made the decision to facilitate efforts towards political reforms which started with the release of political prisoners. But rather than pursue a reform agenda, the Ethiopian government followed his announcement by declaring a state of emergency. This not only jeopardises the regime’s apparent intent to institute democratic reforms, it also pits citizens against the security forces. And it’s already led to more violence, not stability.

The state of emergency is being defied in a number of regions. Citizens have protested in Gondar, which is in the opposition Amhara region, as well as the opposition stronghold of Nekemte which is in Oromia. Much of the Oromia region is also defying the emergency measures.

As a result, the regime has targeted the Oromia region, and its protesting youths who are collectively known as Qeerro in the Oromo language.

Despite the release of thousands of political prisoners and talk of reforms, the political climate remains more uncertain than ever. It’s now feared that any government measures to suppress ensuing chaos could result in more violence, and deaths.

Instability in Ethiopia could have repercussions across the region. Unrest in the country could have a domino effect in what is an already volatile part of the continent. It could also affect regional peace efforts because instability in one corner of the Horn of Africa could spread and destabilise the entire region. This is especially the case because Ethiopia is home to so many cross border communities.

Implications for the region

Ethiopia is influential in the region and across the continent. It is the second most populous country in Africa and one of the fastest growing economies in the world. It also hosts the African Union’s headquarters in its capital, Addis Ababa.

But its standing has been diminished by the political turmoil of the last few years when two of its largest ethnic groups, the Oromo and Amhara both started demanding political and economic equality. The ruling coalition’s responses to these demands has highlighted the fact that it isn’t committed to democratisation.

The risks for the region are significant. Unless the regime acts on political reforms to entrench democracy, equal distribution of resources and freedom of the press, Ethiopia – with more than 100 million citizens – could emerge as the largest politically unstable nation in an already volatile region.

An unstable Ethiopia could also affect peace efforts in neighbouring countries. For example, it’s role as a long standing mediator in the South Sudanese peace talks could suffer a setback.

And its army is also the only peacekeeping force in Abiye, an oil rich region that has been at the centre of the conflict between Sudan and South Sudan since 2011.

In addition, Ethiopia is second only to Bangladesh in the number of its troops involved in international peacekeeping. Across its South Eastern borders, it also maintains thousands of troops inside Somalia.

And although its role in Somalia has drawn criticism Ethiopia remains a critical ally to the US’s counter terrorism strategy in the region. Instability could also create a power vacuum that could affect the US-led anti-terror strategy.

Ultimately, an internal crisis in Ethiopia will affect the power balance with its arch rival Eritrea. After the Ethiopia-Eritrea war which ended in 2000, the two countries have remained engaged in a proxy war by supporting each others’ political opposition groups.

Cross-border communities

Most African states share cross-border societies. The Horn of Africa is no different. The Oromo for instance are a majority ethnic group in Ethiopia and also a minority in Kenya. The Nuer are South Sudan’s second largest ethnic group and also a minority in Ethiopia’s western Gambella region.

There are also Somalis in Ethiopia. They maintain strong ties with their clansmen in Somali, Djibouti and Kenya. The Afar ethnic group in Ethiopia are also minorities in Eritrea, and Djibouti.

A new influx of Ethiopian refuges into Kenya due to the recent massacre in Moyale town underscores the fact that problems in the country are starting to affect cross border societies in the region. In fact, authorities and analysts in neighbouring Kenya are deeply concerned about the situation.

Instability could also affect refugees in Ethiopia itself. The country hosts the second highest number of refugees in Africa. Asylum seekers from Eritrea, South Sudan and Somalia often seek refuge within its borders.

Next steps

There is still room to resuscitate democratic reforms and to create space for national dialogue and reconciliation. Given the potential ramifications of prolonged unrest in Ethiopia, it should be in the interests of the international community to promote peace and stability. To do this it must pressure the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front to suspend the state of emergency.

The international community must also stress that the regime needs to open its doors to the opposition and pave the way for a transitional government. In my opinion this is the only way the ruling coalition can play a critical role in pacifying the country and the region. And the only way it can have a political legacy worthy of praise. Read more here 

Ethiopia's ruling party to pick new chairperson

ADDIS ABABA, March 19 (Xinhua) -- Ethiopia's ruling party Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) will kick off its meeting on Tuesday to elect new party chair.

The EPRDF Council is expected to pick new party chairperson, who will serve as the next prime minister of the East African country as the outgoing Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn's resignation was accepted by the party last month, days after a crippling strike in parts of Ethiopia.

According to state media Fana Broadcasting Corporate (FBC), EPRDF's Council, which will discuss on reports of the Executive Committee of the party, is "expected to fill the leadership gaps after weighing up the reports."

Desalegn, former chairman of the Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM), took over premiership after the death of Meles Zenawi in August 2012.

Ethiopia's ruling party is a coalition of four parties that are Oromo People's Democratic Organization (OPDO), the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and SEPDM.

EPRDF office head Shiferaw Shigute said last week that the meeting had been delayed due to priorities to restore the country's peace and stability.

In addition to endorsing its new chairperson, Ethiopia's ruling party is also expected to elect members for vacant positions following the conclusion of the party's executive committee's meeting, according to Shigute.

Rumors over differences among EPRDF's four member parties have been circulating over the past few weeks after some 88 members of the Ethiopian parliament, which is exclusively dominated by EPRDF and its affiliates, had voted against the recently approved 6-month state of emergency rule.

Shigute, however, downplayed the rumor, insisting that "no individual or party member had opposed the importance of the state of emergency." Read more here 

Ethiopia intercepts over 20,000 arms, working to return refugees in Kenya

Ethiopians who fled the town of Moyale in the wake of a botched military operation that killed nine citizens will be repatriated soon, the country’s police chief confirmed last Friday.

At the time of Assefa Abyou’s press conference, over 9,600 asylum seekers had fled the border town of Moyale into Kenya according to Kenyan media reports.

The federal police chief according to the state-affiliated FBC said government was “undertaking various activities to bring them back home.”

Government admitted that a military operation carried out on false information had led to an attack that killed civilians and wounded about a dozen others.

A military team ostensibly dispatched to intercept a banned armed group – the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) members ended up acting on wrong intelligence leading to the incident. Activists, however, held that it was a deliberate government effort to sow insecurity.

The Command Post administering the February 16 State of Emergency (SOE) early last week dispatched a team to Moyale to ascertain the facts on the ground, that team has yet to give updates on its task.

According to Abyou, the Command Post with the support of the public had intercepted about 20,000 ammunitions stressing that they were taking measures to protect public safety especially in the light of anti-peace elements seeking to sow chaos using social media.

Without giving figures, he also said more than half of persons detained by the Command Post had so far been released. Read more here

Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of destabilising security

Ethiopia has accused neighbouring Eritrea of attempting to compromise its security by supporting “destructive” groups.

According to reports Ethiopia’s state television, Eritrea is supporting groups smuggling weapons across the border. Ethiopia is currently under a state of emergency as the country works to replace prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn who announced his resignation last month.

Ethiopia accuses Eritrea

Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea are constantly strained, largely due to a difficult history between the two countries which has included two wars over independence and border disputes. It’s not unusual for Ethiopia to accuse Eritrea of compromising its security interests but this is the first case since the country’s latest state of emergency.

Tensions along the border have raised concerns over security in the Horn of Africa. The EU said it was “deeply concerned” about the ongoing dispute over territory between the two nations.

“The EU remains deeply concerned that the present stalemate continues to put regional stability at risk, with potentially negative implications on international peace and security as well as international trade, and hampers regional cooperation and development,” EU chief Federica Mogherini said in a statement in April 2017.

However, Ethiopia’s biggest problems right now are internal as the country holds its second state of emergency within a year and discontent among opposition groups increases. According to Ethiopian opposition politician Bekele Gerba, irreversible changes are taking place in the country.

“There is a huge change in this country, especially the region we live in, the Oromia state,” he said earlier this month. “We feel that some kind of air of freedom is here, but this is regarded by the federal government as a threat. Read more here 

Ethiopia’s ‘colour revolution

Unrest in some parts of Ethiopia has been taking the form of a “colour revolution”, with a clear intent to seize power, Defence Minister Siraj Fegessa declared earlier this month as U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson arrived in Addis Ababa. A strike in Oromia, a hotbed of anti-government protests for over two years, was choking the capital. A state of emergency was declared in February after Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned in the wake of continued protests.

Musa Ali, the chief elder responsible for an over 30,000 sq. km portion of north-eastern Oromia, told this reporter that federal forces arrested the deputy commander of the regional police heading a riot squad. The deputy head of the western Oromia’s Kelem Wolega zone’s administration and security office was also arrested, the zone’s vice administrator Nebiyu Nabsu said, after the dismissal of his boss, held out as instrumental in forging police-community relations.

Since Ethiopia suspended its Constitution on February 16, federal forces have arrested a swathe of Oromo police officials, Mayors, and high-profile administrators. Bekane Tadesse, a lecturer at Addis Ababa University, says hardliners are using the emergency to take retaliatory action against the Oromia administration over its measures against ‘controbandists’— figures in the army and the federal government said to control checkpoints and illicit businesses on the internal boundary between Oromia and Ethiopia’s Somali region. The conflict between the Oromo administration and the controbandists is estimated to have displaced a million people.

In East Hararghe at the upper extreme of the boundary, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces shot dead five Oromo and wounded 13 on February 11 at Hamaresa, a site that sheltered about 5,000 Oromo who fled their homes, Karim Bashir, a doctor, said. “Half the population fled into the forests.”

On alert

After Mr. Tillerson left, the army announced that it “mistakenly” killed nine civilians and injured 12 at the southern extreme of the boundary in Moyale, a town divided between Kenya and Ethiopia. Oromia’s Justice Bureau spokesperson was reportedly arrested this week after disputing that the killings were a “mistake”. Once a military post to control the border of Ethiopian monarchy’s empire against the British in Kenya, Moyale has become a theatre of shifting allegiances between the military wing of the banned Oromo Liberation Front, local security personnel, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, clan interests and local militias.

State-owned Ethiopian Broadcasting Corp. has put the numbers who have fled Moyale at 40,000, while the Mayor of the city has given a figure of 8,200. “People in the border villages along the stretch of Moyale are moving into Kenya at different entry points,” said Halkano Halake, the spokesperson for the Governor of Marsabit county on the Kenyan side of Moyale. Over 8,000 asylum seekers are now hosted in eight temporary camps in Marsabit county, its Governor, Mohammed Mohamoud Ali, said in a statement. “The emergency situation is worsening”, the food security situation has “reached a crisis phase”, and some of the camps are “not secure due to proximity to the border”, the statement said.

In the southern borderlands, the local Borana, Gabra, Gari, and Somalis are armed. The current state of heightened tensions could convert a small event into a bigger conflagration. “Everyone is on the alert,” said Mr. Halake. Read more here 

journalist Eskinder vows to continue fighting for democracy

More than six years in jail have not blunted Ethiopian journalist Eskinder Nega’s criticism of the government that put him there.

He was released in February, as part of a broad prisoner amnesty, and remains just as defiant, just as determined as when he was locked up for writing critical articles.

“I am prepared to go back to prison,” Eskinder, 47, said in an interview in the Ethiopian capital this week. “What I am not prepared to do is give up.”

I am prepared to go back to prison.

“We will continue to press and struggle for freedom of expression and democracy.”

Eskinder’s widely-read columns routinely took his country’s authoritarian, one-party government to task, until his arrest in September 2011, after writing a column predicting an Arab Spring-style uprising in Ethiopia.

Like other critical journalists, bloggers, activists and politicians, he was charged with terrorist offences and later sentenced to 18 years in prison.

His trial and detention attracted international condemnation from rights groups, including the literary freedom organisation PEN International.

Despite the recent, unexpected release of thousands of political prisoners, himself included, Eskinder fears life for journalists may worsen rather than improve, following the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) government’s declaration of a nationwide state of emergency last month.

New prime minister, new dawn?

Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn announced his resignation last month, a move unprecedented in the party’s 27-year rule. Behind closed doors, EPRDF leaders are in the midst of an opaque process of selecting a successor.

Whoever is chosen, Eskinder said an essential first step will be a willingness to talk, even to the party’s enemies, if people are to believe democracy is growing.

“If that person wants to make change, wants to make real change in this country, he will have to engage in negotiations with all political parties, including those who have been branded as terrorist organisations,” he said.

Democracy rising?

The prisoner amnesty that saw his release was described by Hailemariam as aiming to “improve the national consensus and widen the democratic platform,” but analysts saw it as a reaction to popular anti-government sentiment.

Months of destructive, sometimes deadly, protests began in late 2015 and only stopped after the imposition of a 10-month state of emergency in October 2016.

Africa’s second-most-populous country remains a hard place for the press, ranking 150 out of 180 countries on Reporters Without Borders’ press freedom index.

After first travelling to the United States to reunite with his wife, who moved to Virginia with his 11-year-old son while he was jailed, Eskinder is considering a shift from print to broadcast journalism in a bid to reach a wider audience.

“To be relevant to the struggle, I think involvement in satellite television is fundamental,” Eskinder said.

But while the medium may change, the message remains the same: “It’s western liberal democracy that I envision for the country.” Read more here 

The world’s richest black person still in prison

The Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Riyadh last month. Sheikh Mohammed Hussein Al Amoudi was among a number of high-profile figures held at the hotel after a wave of arrests last year. Sheikh Amoudi has been moved, but his companies do not know where. CreditTasneem Alsultan for The New York Times

He supplies coffee to Starbucks. He owns much of Ethiopia. And he is known as “Sheikh Mo” in the Clintons’ circle.

But the gilded life of Sheikh Mohammed Hussein Al Amoudi took a sharp turn in November. Sheikh Amoudi, the gregarious 71-year-old son of a Yemeni businessman and his Ethiopian wife, was swept up with hundreds of billionaires, princes and other well-connected figures in what the Saudi government says is an anti-corruption campaign that has seized more than $100 billion in assets.

Many other detainees, who were initially kept at a Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh, have been released, including Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the well-known international investor. Sheikh Amoudi’s cousin Mohammed Aboud Al Amoudi, a property developer, was also let go.

But Sheikh Amoudi, once called the world’s richest black person by Forbes, has not been freed, leaving a vast empire that employs more than 70,000 people in limbo. He controls businesses from Ethiopia, where he is the largest private employer and the most prominent backer of the authoritarian government, to Sweden, where he owns a large fuel company, to London, which he has used as a base to set up a number of companies.

“He was in the Ritz-Carlton, but we have been told by his family members that he was moved, along with others, to another hotel,” Sheikh Amoudi’s press office said in an email responding to questions. “Unfortunately we do not know where. He is in regular contact with his family and is being treated well.”

While Sheikh Amoudi lacks a princely pedigree, he is in other ways an archetype of those entangled in the kingdom’s power play: a billionaire with assets stretching across the world who had close ties to previous governments.

The late King Abdullah was a supporter of Sheikh Amoudi’s Saudi Star Agricultural Development, a sprawling farming venture in Ethiopia established to supply rice to Saudi Arabia. Such ventures are seen as strategic assets in a desert kingdom keenly aware of its agricultural limitations. While Saudi Star has had a tough time getting going, it is said to be a particular focus of the new government’s interest.

Saudi officials have declined to comment on the charges against individual detainees as well as their status, citing privacy laws.

The Saudi government has said its dragnet followed an extensive investigation by a newly formed anti-corruption committee headed by the country’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman. The prince, who has fashioned himself as a reformer, is in the midst of a charm offensive to bolster diplomatic and financial ties to the West and is scheduled to visit Washington this month.

The detentions, however, have been almost entirely opaque. There have been no signs of collaboration with Western law enforcement and no charges made public, leading some critics to view it as a power and money grab rather than a bona fide anti-corruption effort. Saudi officials have denied that anyone has been mistreated, but people with knowledge of the detentions have said that as many as 17 of the detainees required medical attention because of abuse, and one later died in custody.

Given the insular nature of the country and the crackdown, Saudi officials are likely to make the most headway seizing assets within their own borders. Within Sheikh Amoudi’s empire, there is much to sort through.

He moved to the kingdom as a teenager. Although there are few firm details about how a commoner came to vast wealth, he managed to forge influential connections. The most important was Prince Sultan bin Abdel Aziz, who served as defense minister and crown prince before his death in 2011. Sheikh Amoudi ran businesses that depended on the prince’s money and position, associates said. Another of his allies was Khalid bin Mahfouz, a billionaire who later became enmeshed in the collapse of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International in 1991, at the time one of the largest private banks in the world.

In the 1980s, Sheikh Amoudi set up Mohammed International Development Research and Organization Companies, a conglomerate known as Midroc. Early on, his biggest deal was a multibillion-dollar project to build the kingdom’s underground oil storage capacity. Engineering and construction became core businesses for Midroc, but it operates everything from pharmaceutical to furniture factories in the region, according to its website. Sheikh Amoudi also owns half of a steel company called Yanbu, and a large chain of gas stations called Naft.

Like another detainee, Sheikh Alwaleed, Sheikh Amoudi extended his reach to the United States. He donated millions of dollars to the Clinton Foundation and offered his private plane to fly Bill Clinton to Ethiopia in 2011. That offer sparked debate within the foundation, leaked emails showed.

“Unless Sheikh Mo has sent us a $6 million check, this sounds crazy to do,” Amitabh Desai, the foreign policy director of the Clinton Foundation, wrote in one of the emails.

That was not the first time that Sheikh Amoudi’s name had surfaced in the United States. Three years after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, a lawsuit by the owner of the World Trade Center described Sheikh Amoudi as a “material sponsor of international terrorism” because of his funding of controversial Islamic charities. Both sides agreed to a dismissal the next year, and a spokesman for Sheikh Amoudi attributed the suit to a case of mistaken identity.

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In Ethiopia, Sheikh Amoudi’s allies portray him as a philanthropist and a champion of African growth.

“I am a Saudi investor, born in Africa, with an Ethiopian mother, of which I am proud,” he said in a speech in Washington in 2014. “I have a special relationship with my birth country by investing in all of Africa — north, south, east, west.”

Sisay Asefa, a professor at Western Michigan University, has known Sheikh Amoudi for years and set up a foundation with his support.

“He should be released immediately,” he said. Sheikh Amoudi, he added, “has transformed many lives.”

But he has also been a polarizing figure. Sheikh Amoudi’s reach in Ethiopia has been so pervasive that a 2008 State Department cable, made public by WikiLeaks, said that “nearly every enterprise of significant monetary or strategic value privatized since 1994 has passed from the ownership of the Government of Ethiopia” to “one of Al Amoudi’s companies.” That called into question the “true competitiveness of the process,” the cable said.

Sheikh Amoudi has opened his deep pockets to build a hospital in Addis Ababa and fund AIDS treatment programs. But he has also long backed the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, which has governed the country for more than a quarter-century, angering opposition supporters.

His loyalty to the party has even crossed borders. When a popular expatriate group in the United States called the Ethiopian Sports Federation in North America invited an opposition leader to speak in 2010, Sheikh Amoudi set up a rival group.

“When he was imprisoned, it divided public opinion,” said Semahagn Gashu Abebe, an assistant professor of international studies at Endicott College. “The opposition is happy because they think it will greatly weaken the regime.”

But for Ethiopia’s governing party, he said, “it’s a loss.”

Many see Sheikh Amoudi less as a beneficent local son than a Saudi privateer. Some of his mining operations, particularly in a region of Ethiopia called Oromia, have caused resentment, protests and arrests.

“The government and people around the government would definitely miss him,” said Henok Gabisa, a visiting academic fellow at Washington and Lee University School of Law. “I’m sure people from the Oromia region would never miss him, because they feel like they were robbed of their natural resources.”

As Mr. Gabisa put it, “Literally his presence and his absence make a huge difference in Ethiopia.” Read more here 

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Kenya Boosts Border Security After Ethiopian Rebels Claim Attack

Kenya tightened security at its northern border with Ethiopia after the rebel Oromo Liberation Front said it attacked a military convoy in the neighboring country.

The deployment comes amid increased tension in the market town of Moyale that straddles the two countries’ boundary after Ethiopian forces “mistakenly” killed nine civilians and injured 12 others on March 10, forcing thousands of ethnic Oromos to flee to Kenya.

Kenyan police increased their presence in Moyale to 20 at each border-entry point, while four Kenya Defence Forces tanks are stationed at border crossing points, said Halkano Halake, spokesman for the governor of Kenya’s northern Marsabit county.

“Regular police increased to 20 at each border entry point,” said Halake. “Two artillery tanks are stationed at crossing points. Two more at other entry points.”

Kenya police spokesman Charles Owino didn’t answer two calls to his mobile phone seeking comment, while KDF spokesman David Obonyo said the army hasn’t deployed more forces.

“We have always had security personnel along the border and in the general area of Moyale,” Obonyo said by phone from the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. “We have had a lot of influx of people from Ethiopia into Kenya and the internal-security organs and other humanitarian agencies are dealing with it.”

Thousands Flee

The Oromo Liberation Front said in a statement March 13 its forces this week carried out two attacks on Ethiopian forces patrolling Moyale and on a military convoy traveling near the border “in retaliation for the massacre the regime committed in Moyale.” It said 72 Ethiopian soldiers died in the attack.

Halake couldn’t independently verify the number of casualties claimed by the OLF.

Ethiopian Information Minister Negeri Lencho referred a request for comment to Defense Minister Siraj Fegessa, who along with Addisu Arega, a spokesman for the Oromia region’s government, didn’t respond to two calls and two text messages each seeking comment.

Food Shortages

Thousands of ethnic Oromo refugees have fled across the border into Kenya since the civilian killings in Moyale. About 8,200 are hosted in eight temporary camps in Marsabit county, Halake said, citing Marsabit Governor Mohammed Mohamoud Ali.

Ethiopian state-owned Oromia Broadcasting Network has put the number of people who fled to Kenya at 50,000, citing Aschalew Yohannes, the mayor of Moyale in Ethiopia. Six calls to Aschalew’s mobile phone didn’t connect.

Food shortages in Moyale have “reached a crisis phase” as Kenyan host families have depleted their food supplies, Ali said in a statement forwarded to Bloomberg by Halake.

“There is no access to adequate health-care,” he said. “There is no water for household consumption and lack of water storage containers in addition to open disposal of human waste.” Read more here 

Ethiopia crisis is 'the beginning of the end of autocracy' - Kenyan security expert

A Kenyan conflict analysis resolution expert says Kenya must employ diplomatic channels to help Ethiopia out of the current political crisis it finds itself in.

According to Hassan Khannenje, the current state of affairs was just a matter of time after decades of iron fist rule by the Ethiopia Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).

Speaking on a political talk show hosted by NTV Kenya channel he stressed that Ethiopia was nearing the end of authoritarian rule. “I don’t see the current Ethiopian crisis as the beginning of democracy (actually) I see it as the beginning of the end of autocracy.

Ever since the days of Hailesellasie to Mengistu Hailemariam and then after he was overthrown (really), there has never been a debate in Ethiopia or political space, essentially it has been a police state.

“Ever since the days of Hailesellasie to Mengistu Hailemariam and then after he was overthrown (really), there has never been a debate in Ethiopia or political space, essentially it has been a police state,” he stressed.

He averred that in the absence of a substantive head of government, i.e. a Prime Minister, the country was confused, adding that the state of emergency did not help matters because it is often used to repress opposition groups.

“And this is a culmination of many years of autocracy and authoritarianism. Now, in the absence of the Prime Minister at the moment or at least the state control of power in certain places, a lot of time the opposition tends to suffer, it gets scapegoated, it gets repressed.

“… the Oromo being the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia and having been resistant to the status quo for many years, of course they are going kto get the first flak. Now, Kenya had seen this coming and we cannot pretend we were unaware of the goings on in Ethiopia.

Kenya until recently had not actively waded into the Ethiopian situation. The recent influx of thousands of refugees following a botched military operation in the border town of Moyale has forced the media to discuss Ethiopia.

“This was bound to happen sooner or later and what I am hoping is our Minister of Foreign Affairs or Interior have a moral bust approach both diplomatically with Ethiopia to make sure that thing does not overflow.

“But also to use its influence on the current rulers within at least on the Ethiopian circles, at least, to try and calm things down. Today Ethiopia needs help. They are still trying to figure out a direction where to go from here, they are confused,” he said. Read more here

Who will be Ethiopia's next prime minister?

Image copyrightREUTERS

Image captionWho will replace Hailemariam Desalegn?

Ethiopia's ruling coalition is due to meet soon to choose its next leader. That person will automatically become the prime minister. They will be taking on the role at a time of bitter internal wrangles and violent protests.

Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn announced on 15 February that he would resign as both the chairperson of Ethiopia's ruling coalition EPRDF and as prime minister - a position he had held since 2012.

So that leaves the 180-strong EPRDF council to choose the next prime minister.

The coalition is complex.

EPRDF is made up of four ethnically based political parties: the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM); the Oromo People's Democratic Organisation (OPDO); the Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM) and the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

While the ANDM and OPDO have roots in Oromia and Amhara regions, which together account for more than half of Ethiopia's population, it is the minority TPLF from Tigray region that controls the military and security apparatus and is seen as the dominant party in the coalition.

Bitter internal wrangles within the ruling coalition have however made it difficult to predict just who will become the next prime minister.

To make matters worse, the government failed to quell anger when it declared a state of emergency. Demonstrators in the west defied a ban on protests and marches became violent.

The coalition, which has been in power since 1991 after toppling the communist regime, is at a crossroads.

The bitter infighting is between reformists who feel the country is headed the wrong way and conservatives keen on maintaining the status quo and the grip on power.

Here's a run down of the top seven contenders for prime minister.

Image captionFrom left to right: Abiy Ahmed, Debretsion Gebremichael, Lema Mergessa, Workneh Gebeyehu, Demeke Mekonnen

1. Lemma Magersa

He is the current President of the Oromia Regional State and deputy leader of the OPDO.

The charismatic Mr Lemma is seen as a fearless and eloquent reformer. He was once quoted as saying he was ready to go out and join demonstrators if the government did not heed the demands of protesters especially from his region.

The 47-year-old was born and raised in East Welega, Oromia.

Last December he condemned the killings of protesters and the federal security forces' intervention in the Oromia region without his region's consent. He has also offered to hold dialogue with opposition groups.

He is deemed as an acceptable candidate who can unify the country but his path to the top seat is complicated. He's not a member of the federal parliament, the House of People's Representatives, a requirement to become prime minister.

Last December, a cartoon depicting Mr Lemma as the biblical Moses parting the Red Sea was widely shared on social media, showing just how his popularity "as a man with answers to the country's problems" had soared.

Despite his meteoric rise within the ruling party and Ethiopia's complex politics, his critics believe he is too inexperienced to take on the intricacies of the EPRDF.

2. Abiy Ahmed

The current leader of the OPDO, Mr Abiy, is seen as the front-runner in the race to succeed the outgoing prime minister having just been elected to head the party.

He is an astute politician with impressive academic and military credentials.

He was born in the city of Agaro in Oromia and comes from a mixed Christian-Muslim family. The 42-year-old joined the OPDO in the late 1980s.

He has served in the military and rose to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. He also took part in the UN peacekeeping mission to Rwanda.

He was the founder and director of the country's Internet Security Agency between 2009 and 2012 after which he became the minister for science and technology.

He is seen by many as outspoken and competent and a person who leans to a participatory leadership style.

Mr Abiy is younger than the other potential leaders and is believed to have huge support among the Oromo youth as well as other ethnic groups.

His critics however say that as an EPRDF insider, he won't offer much of the change demanded by protesters.

3. Debretsion G Michael

Mr Debretsion was born in Shire, located in the northern Tigray region. He dropped out of his studies at the University of Addis Ababa to join the armed struggle.

During this time he travelled to Italy where he completed training in communications technology. After which he established the regional TPLF radio station known as "Dimtsi Weyane".

Soon after the EPRDF came into power in 1991, Mr Debretsion served as the deputy to the head of the intelligence bureau.

He has been serving as the Director of the Information and Communication Development Agency since 2006 but also served as a deputy prime minister.

He is the chairperson of the TPLF party and the deputy head of state for the Tigray region as well as the minister for information and communications.

Activists and opposition political parties argue that the TPLF dominates the political power in the coalition, so his election as prime minster would be a controversial move that would be likely to deepen divisions within the coalition and further inflame feelings of exclusion among the Oromo and Amhara communities.

Mr Debretsion is a member of the House of People's Representatives.

4. Demeke Mekonen

He is the current deputy prime minister.

He joined the EPRDF after university and a few years later became a member of the Amhara region council.

During the mid-2000s he became the deputy chief of the Amhara regional state and a year later became a member of the ANDM executive committee.

While on duty as chair of the ANDM, in 2013, he was appointed the deputy chair of the EPRDF.

Prior to coming to power, Mr Demeke was a teacher and served as the education minister.

Mr Demeke, who is a member of the House of People's Representatives, is known to be a low-key player in the federal government.

It is unlikely the ANDM will take the prime minister's position as the party has held the deputy prime minister position for so long.

Ethiopia's ethnic make-up:

• Oromo - 34.4%
• Amhara - 27%
• Somali - 6.2%
• Tigray - 6.1%
• Others - 26.3%

Source: CIA World Factbook estimates from 2007

5. Workneh Gebeyehu

He is a member of OPDO and is the current foreign affairs minister.

Born in the late 1960s, Mr Workneh has served for many years as the commissioner for the federal police commission.

In the late 2000s he was appointed as transport minister, a position he held for four years.

A member of the OPDO since the late 1980s, Mr Workneh has since the late 2000s served as a member of the executive committee for both the OPDO and EPRDF.

He is a member of the Addis Ababa city administration council but not a member of the House of People's Representatives.

6. Siraj Fegessa

Ethiopia's current defence minister has been the face of the state of emergencies announced in October 2016 and again in February 2018.

He has constantly appeared on state media articulating the conditions imposed by the state of emergency.

Image copyrightREUTERS

Image captionEthiopia has been hit by three years of protests

The sharply dressed but straight-faced politician is seen as one of the least favourite to become the new prime minister.

He is a member of the SEPDM, the same party as the recently resigned prime minister and has just been announced as its deputy leader, further complicating his ascendancy to power.

Some analysts say his party might argue that Mr Hailemariam never finished his term and therefore might suggest that Mr Siraj or someone from within SEPDM for the premiership. This is however highly unlikely.

7. Shiferaw Shigute

He is currently working with the secretariat of the EPRDF, previously he was the minister of education, and president of the southern Ethiopia regional state.

Mr Shiferaw is the newly elected chairman of the SEPDM replacing the recently resigned prime minister who was also the chairman of the party.

Image copyrightEPRDF/ FACEBOOK

Born in Haroressa, in the southern Ethiopia region, Shiferaw was a teacher before joining politics.

When the outgoing prime minister was still the region's president, Mr Shiferaw was deputy president of the southern Ethiopia regional state government.

When Mr Hailemariam became deputy prime minister and foreign minister under the late Meles Zenawi's administration, Mr Shiferaw assumed the presidency of the region.

Some people say his election as the chairman of the SEPDM was intended to enhance his chances of becoming prime minister.

Mr Shiferaw is a member of the federal parliament from which the prime minister will be elected. Read More here